Hard 11 Against a Dealer Ace
Updated
This is the one place where you genuinely have to look at the felt first. If the dealer stands on soft 17, hit. If the dealer hits soft 17, double. Every other eleven on the chart is a double against everything.
- S17 tables: hit. +0.146 against +0.122 for doubling.
- H17 tables: double. +0.117 against +0.106 for hitting.
- Both margins are small — 2.4% and 1.0% — but they point opposite ways.
- Against every dealer card from 2 to 10, you double. No exceptions.
Why the rule flips this one cell
When the dealer hits soft 17, an ace showing gets more chances to improve — and also more chances to bust. The bust rate with an ace rises from 16.7% under S17 to just over 20% under H17.
Doubling on 11 pays off exactly when the dealer is likely to break or you are likely to reach 21. H17 raises the dealer’s bust rate enough to tip a decision that was already almost balanced. The margin is only 1.0%, which is why the two rules disagree at all: nothing here is decisive.
What each option is actually worth
Six decks, dealer has peeked and does not have blackjack, averaged across every two-card 11. Bet of 1 unit:
What to do if you cannot remember
Hit. Under S17 hitting is correct, and under H17 hitting costs you only 1.0% — roughly a cent on a $10 bet. Doubling when you should hit is the more expensive error of the two, because it puts a second bet on the table in the spot where the dealer is strongest.
The soft-17 rule is normally printed on the felt. If it says “dealer must draw to 16 and stand on all 17s”, that is S17.
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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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