Hard 16 Against a Dealer 10

Updated

This is the most searched hand in blackjack, and the reason is that every answer feels wrong. It is worth saying plainly at the top: you are not picking a winner here, you are picking the smallest loss. If the table offers surrender, take it. If it does not, hit.

The short version
Every number on this page is computed for a six-deck game with our own solver, then checked against an independent reference. The calculator will do the same for your exact table and hand.

Why this hand has no good answer

A dealer showing a ten finishes with 17 or better about 77% of the time and busts only 23%. Your 16 beats none of that. To win you must either draw to 17–21 without busting, or watch the dealer break — and both are unlikely at the same time.

Hitting a 16 busts you whenever you draw a 6 or higher, which is a little over 60% of the deck. Standing hands the decision to a dealer who is already favored. There is no third door.

What each option is actually worth

All figures are for six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, computed for every two-card 16 and weighted by how often each one comes up. A bet of 1 unit:

break even Surrender -0.500 Hit -0.535 Stand -0.540 Double -1.069
Every bar is below the line. Surrender caps the damage at exactly half a bet, which is why it wins a hand nothing else can.

If the table does not offer surrender

Hit. It is better than standing by 0.6% of your bet, which sounds tiny and is not: 16 against a ten is one of the most common spots at the table, so that gap compounds faster than almost any other single decision.

Multi-card 16s are the exception worth knowing. If your 16 is built from three or more cards — say 5+4+7 — the small cards you used are no longer available to bust you, and standing gets closer. With four or more cards, stand.

When the answer changes

The soft-17 rule does not matter here, and that is not an oversight. With a ten showing, the dealer cannot hold a soft 17: an ace under a ten is blackjack, and any ace drawn later has to count as 1. So S17 and H17 produce identical numbers for this hand. Most charts show both columns anyway, which is where the confusion comes from.

Deck count barely moves it either. What does matter is whether surrender exists at all — that single rule is worth 3.5% of your bet every time this hand appears.

Keep reading

16 against a 9the closest surrender call 15 against a 10thinner still 16 against a 7why you hit this one

By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.

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