Is Insurance Worth Taking in Blackjack?
Updated
No. Without a count, insurance is never worth taking. It pays 2:1, which would be fair if the dealer completed the blackjack one time in three, and the real figure is closer to 30.9%. That gap is a 7.4% house edge, roughly seventeen times worse than the game you are sitting at. The only exception belongs to counters holding a high true count.
- Insurance is a side bet on the dealer's blackjack, paying 2:1.
- It needs a 33.3% hit rate to break even and gets 30.9%.
- Never take it unless you are counting cards.
- Even money is the same bet in a nicer suit. Same answer.
What insurance actually is
When the dealer shows an ace, you are offered insurance: a separate wager of up to half your original bet, paying 2:1 if the hole card turns out to be a ten.
The name does the damage. It sounds like protection for the bet you already have out, and it is nothing of the kind. It is an independent proposition bet on one card, and it is priced badly.
Why it loses
A 2:1 payout breaks even when the event happens one time in three, or 33.3%. So how often does an ace actually have a ten underneath?
| Decks | Chance of a ten in the hole | House edge on insurance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.37% | 5.88% |
| 2 | 31.07% | 6.80% |
| 6 | 30.87% | 7.40% |
| 8 | 30.84% | 7.47% |
Ten-value cards are 16 of every 52. With six decks that is 96 tens among the 311 cards left once the ace is showing, or 30.87%. Insurance expectation is 3p − 1, so the edge follows directly.
Every deck the house adds makes it slightly worse, which is the opposite of what most people assume. And at a six-deck table you are trading a 0.44% game for a 7.40% one, hand after hand, on the bet you were told would keep you safe.
When it does work
The whole calculation rests on tens being 30.9% of the remaining cards. That number is not fixed. In a shoe where the small cards have already come out, tens make up a larger share of what is left, and once they pass one third, the 2:1 price becomes a bargain.
That is precisely what a running count measures. The standard Hi‑Lo index for insurance is a true count of +3, and it is the single most valuable deviation in card counting, worth more than any other individual departure from basic strategy.
Two conditions, and both are required. You have to be counting, and the count has to be there. A hunch that "a lot of face cards have come out" is not a count, and acting on one costs you 7.4% every time.
Even money is the same bet
You have a blackjack, the dealer shows an ace, and you are offered even money: a guaranteed 1:1 instead of the 3:2 you would normally collect, with the risk of pushing if the dealer also has a natural.
Do the arithmetic. You are holding an ace and a ten, and the dealer's ace is showing, so 95 tens remain among 309 unseen cards. The dealer completes the natural 30.7% of the time and you push. The other 69.3% of the time you collect 1.5 units.
That works out to an expected 1.039 units. Even money hands you exactly 1.000, so the certainty costs you about four cents on the dollar every time you accept it. It is insurance with a friendlier name, and the same rule applies: decline unless you are counting and the count is high.
• Insurance needs 33.3% to break even and delivers 30.9%.
• House edge is 7.4% at six decks and gets worse with more decks.
• Even money is the same bet and costs 3.7%.
• Take either one only with a true count of +3 or higher.
How does the payout work?
Insurance is a side bet of up to half your original wager. If the dealer turns over a ten, insurance pays 2:1 and covers the loss on your main hand, so you break even on the round. If the dealer does not, the insurance money is collected and your hand plays on as normal.
The break-even-on-the-round outcome is what makes the bet feel sensible. It hides the fact that you paid too much for it.
The dealer will offer it every time
Do not read anything into that. Dealers are required to offer insurance whenever an ace shows, and many will pause and make eye contact while they do. It is procedure, not a signal, and the dealer has no idea what the hole card is.
The correct response is a small head shake, and then getting on with the hand.
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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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