How Often the Dealer Busts, by Upcard
Updated
The dealer busts far less often than most players believe. Even the worst card on the table — a six — breaks only 42.3% of the time. Here is the whole table, computed for six decks and checked against an independent reference.
- The dealer’s worst card is the 6, busting 42.3% of the time.
- The strongest is the ace at 16.7%, even after checking for blackjack.
- No upcard busts more than 43%. “The dealer always makes their hand” is closer to true than most people admit.
- The 2 is the least weak of the weak cards at 35.4%.
The full table
Six decks, dealer stands on soft 17 in the first column and hits it in the second. The ten and ace columns assume the dealer has already checked for blackjack and does not have one — which is the situation you are actually in when you decide.
| Dealer shows | Busts (S17) | Busts (H17) | Most likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% | 35.7% | 17 |
| 3 | 37.4% | 37.7% | 17 |
| 4 | 39.6% | 39.8% | 17 |
| 5 | 41.8% | 42.0% | 18 |
| 6 | 42.3% | 43.9% | 17 |
| 7 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 17 |
| 8 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 18 |
| 9 | 22.9% | 22.9% | 19 |
| 10 | 23.0% | 23.0% | 20 |
| Ace | 16.7% | 20.1% | 20 |
What the numbers actually tell you
Two things fall straight out of this table.
Standing on a stiff hand is not a plan, it is a bet on 35–42%. When you stand on a 14 against a 5, you are not doing something clever. You are betting that one specific event happens, and it happens 41.8% of the time. It is still the right play, because hitting is worse — but it is not a favorite.
The 7 is the hinge. Bust rates drop off a cliff between the 6 (42.3%) and the 7 (26.2%). That is the whole reason basic strategy changes shape there.
What the soft-17 rule changes
When the dealer hits soft 17 they get more chances to improve and more chances to break. The bust rate rises for every card that can reach a soft 17 — most visibly the 6, going from 42.3% to 43.9%, and the ace, from 16.7% to 20.1%.
Notice that the 10 does not move at all. With a ten showing the dealer cannot hold a soft 17: an ace underneath is blackjack, and any ace drawn later has to count as 1. Charts that print different S17 and H17 numbers for a ten are wrong.
Keep reading
By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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