Perfect Pairs: The Blackjack Side Bet

Updated

Perfect Pairs is a side wager that wins when your first two cards are a pair. It pays by grade: a mixed pair pays least, a perfect pair pays up to 25:1. The best version of it carries a 4.10% house edge, the worst runs past 22%, and the game it sits next to costs you about half a percent.

The short version

How it works and what it pays

You place the bet before the deal. If your two cards match in rank, you get paid according to how closely they match.

GradeWhat it meansTypical payout
Mixed pairSame rank, one red and one black6:1, sometimes 5:1
Colored pairSame rank and color, different suit10:1 to 12:1
Perfect pairSame rank and same suit25:1 to 30:1

A perfect pair is only possible because casinos deal from multiple decks. In a single-deck game there is exactly one ace of spades, so the top prize simply cannot happen.

The exact numbers

These are counted directly rather than estimated, using the common 25:1 / 12:1 / 6:1 paytable.

DecksPerfectColoredMixedHouse edge
20.97%1.94%3.88%22.33%
41.45%1.93%3.86%10.14%
61.61%1.93%3.86%6.11%
81.69%1.93%3.86%4.10%

Computed by counting hands directly: total two-card combinations against the combinations in each grade. Method in how we calculate.

Notice what moves and what does not. Colored and mixed pairs sit at almost exactly the same frequency no matter how many decks are in play. Perfect pairs nearly double from two decks to eight, and since they carry the biggest payout, they drive the whole result.

That produces the odd conclusion above: an eight-deck game is the good version of this bet. Everywhere else in blackjack you prefer fewer decks. Here, fewer decks starve the top prize and the edge balloons.

Watch the paytable, not the headline

Casinos advertise the 25:1 and quietly adjust the bottom of the table, which is where most of the money actually is. Mixed pairs are more than twice as common as either other grade, so trimming them from 6:1 to 5:1 costs you far more than it looks.

Paytable (perfect / colored / mixed)6 decks8 decks
25:1 / 12:1 / 6:16.11%4.10%
25:1 / 12:1 / 5:19.97%7.95%
30:1 / 10:1 / 5:15.79%3.37%

The third row is worth a second look. A bigger top prize and a smaller mixed payout produce the best version of the bet at eight decks. You cannot judge these by the number printed largest on the felt.

Even the best version is bad. At 3.37% you are paying roughly seven times what the main game charges. The friendly framing is that Perfect Pairs is entertainment with a known price. The unfriendly one is that a $5 side bet across an hour of hands costs more than most people lose on the blackjack itself.

Can you count it?

Slightly, and not usefully. A pair becomes likelier when the ranks still in the shoe are unevenly distributed, so a shoe that has burned through several ranks does raise the bet's value. Tracking that requires watching individual ranks rather than a single running count, and the payoff is small and erratic.

The energy is better spent on the main game, where counting genuinely flips the sign of your expectation instead of shaving a percent off a bad bet.

Worth keeping straight:
• Best case is 3.37% and worst is over 22%.
• More decks is better, which is unique to this bet.
• The mixed-pair payout matters more than the headline 25:1.
• Nothing about your main hand affects it, or is affected by it.

Keep reading

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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.

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