Hard 12 Against a Dealer 2
Updated
Hit. This is the hand where the rule everybody half-remembers — “stand on a stiff against a weak card” — breaks down, because a two is not a weak card. Standing costs 4.0% of your bet.
- Hit. 25.4% lost on average, against 29.3% for standing.
- A dealer 2 busts only 35.4% of the time — the least of any card from 2 to 6.
- You bust only when you draw a ten, which is under a third of the deck.
- The same logic applies against a 3. From a 4 upward it reverses.
A two is the strongest of the “weak” cards
Dealer bust rates by upcard are not flat across the low cards. A dealer showing 2 busts 35.4% of the time; a 5 busts 41.8% and a 6 busts 42.3%. That seven-point spread is the whole reason 12 is played differently against a 2 than against a 5.
Standing on 12 means you win only if the dealer breaks. Against a two you are asking a 35% question. Hitting gives you a live hand roughly 69% of the time, because only a ten-value card busts a 12.
What each option is actually worth
Six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, averaged across every two-card 12. Bet of 1 unit:
Where the answer flips
Against a 2 and a 3 you hit. From a 4 onward you stand, all the way to a 6, and then you hit again from 7 up. That gives the 12 row an unusual shape: hit, hit, stand, stand, stand, hit, hit, hit, hit, hit.
The flip between 3 and 4 is genuinely close — see 12 against a 4, which is the tightest non-surrender decision on the chart and the one published charts most often get wrong.
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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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