Hard 13 Against a Dealer 2
Updated
Stand. The interesting part is that 12 against a 2 is a hit and 13 against the same card is a stand — one point changes the answer, and the reason is entirely about which cards bust you.
- Stand. 29.3% lost, against 30.8% for hitting.
- The margin is 1.5%.
- A 12 busts only on a ten. A 13 busts on a 9 or a ten — nearly twice as many cards.
- From 13 upward you stand against everything from 2 to 6.
Why one point reverses the answer
It is not the dealer that changed — it is you. Hitting a 12 busts you only on a ten-value card: 16 cards in every 52, a little under 31%. Hitting a 13 busts you on a 9 or a ten: 20 cards in 52, closer to 38%.
That extra seven points of bust risk is enough to swing the decision, because standing on 13 wins in exactly the same circumstances that standing on 12 does — whenever the dealer breaks. The upside stayed the same while the downside grew.
What each option is actually worth
Six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, averaged across every two-card 13. Bet of 1 unit:
The rule this establishes
From 13 up to 16, you stand against every dealer card from 2 to 6 without exception. The only stiff total that needs thinking about in that range is the 12, which hits against a 2 and a 3.
That is the whole of the stiff-hand section of basic strategy, and it is four sentences long. Most of the money people lose to bad play is lost in these rows, not in the exotic ones.
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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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