Hard 15 Against a Dealer 10
Updated
Surrender — and this is the closest decision in the whole of basic strategy. Giving up beats hitting by 0.3% of a bet. Without surrender, hit.
- Surrender if offered, by the thinnest margin on the chart: 0.3%.
- Otherwise hit: 50.3% lost, against 53.9% for standing.
- Standing costs 3.6% more than hitting.
- Because it is this close, the composition of your 15 genuinely matters.
How close is it, really
Hitting loses 50.3% of a bet. Surrendering loses exactly 50%. The whole decision rests on 0.3% — roughly three cents on a $10 bet.
That is close enough that it is one of the few cells where honest sources disagree, and close enough that the cards in your own hand can tip it. A 15 made of 10+5 has already removed a ten from the shoe, which makes your draw slightly safer and nudges the answer toward hitting. A 15 made of 9+6 leaves the tens intact.
What each option is actually worth
Six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, averaged across every two-card 15. Bet of 1 unit:
What to actually do at the table
Take the surrender. Not because the margin is large — it is not — but because at 0.3% either choice is nearly free, and surrender is the one you cannot misplay afterward. Hitting a 15 leaves you with a follow-up decision on a 16, 17 or 18, and those are where the real money leaks out.
If the table has no surrender, hit and do not agonize. Standing is the only genuinely wrong answer, and it costs 3.6%.
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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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