Hard 16 Against a Dealer 7
Updated
Hit, and do not surrender even if it is offered. Taking a card to a 16 against a seven feels like walking into traffic, which is why this is one of the most commonly misplayed hands at the table — and standing costs 6.8% of your bet every time you do it.
- Hit. 40.9% lost on average.
- Standing loses 47.7% — a gap of 6.8%.
- Do not surrender: at −0.5 it is worse than hitting here.
- A dealer 7 busts only 26.2% of the time and usually lands on 17.
Seven is where the table turns
Everything from 2 to 6 is a dealer card you stand against. Everything from 7 up is a card you draw against. The seven is the hinge, and it is the one people get wrong, because it is the weakest of the strong cards and still looks beatable.
Here is what actually happens: a dealer showing 7 busts 26.2% of the time and finishes on exactly 17 about 37% of the time. Standing on 16 wins only when the dealer busts. You are taking 26% odds when hitting gives you a real chance at 17 through 21.
What each option is actually worth
Six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, averaged across every two-card 16. Bet of 1 unit:
Why surrender is wrong here specifically
Surrender is a fixed loss of half a bet. Against a nine, ten or ace, hitting a 16 loses more than that, so giving up is an improvement. Against a seven, hitting loses only 40.9% — comfortably less than 50% — so surrendering would throw away 9.1% of your bet.
This is the cleanest illustration of what surrender is for. It is not a panic button for hands you dislike. It is an option that pays only when every other option is worse than losing half.
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By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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