Blackjack Odds Calculator
Updated
Pick the dealer’s upcard and see exactly how their hand ends. These are the numbers behind every decision on a strategy chart, and they are the ones most players have never actually looked at.
- Full outcome distribution, not just the bust rate.
- Both soft-17 rules, six decks, with the ten and ace conditioned on no blackjack.
- Verified against published tables: 60 of 60 cells to four decimals.
- The dealer’s worst card busts only 42.3% of the time.
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What these numbers are for
Every cell of a basic strategy chart comes from comparing your hand against this distribution. When the chart says stand on 13 against a 2, it is saying: the dealer breaks 35.4% of the time, and hitting a 13 busts you more often than that gains you.
The figure worth internalising is that no dealer upcard busts more than 42.3%. Standing on a stiff hand is never a favorite — it is choosing the less bad of two losing options. The full table and what follows from it.
How these were computed
By recursion through the dealer’s draw tree with cards removed from a six-deck shoe as they are dealt — not an infinite-deck approximation. The ten and ace columns are conditioned on the dealer having checked for blackjack and not having one, which is the situation you are actually in when you decide.
All sixty cells match the published reference to four decimal places. How we check our numbers.
Keep reading
By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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