Buster Blackjack: Paying by How Badly the Dealer Breaks
Updated
Buster Blackjack wins when the dealer breaks, and pays more the more cards it took them to do it. The dealer busts about 28.2% of the time — which is the number that makes this bet feel closer than it is.
- House edge on the Evolution live-dealer paytable: 6.18% (eight decks, S17).
- The dealer busts 28.2% of hands, but usually with just three cards.
- Three-card busts — the most common by far — pay only 1:1.
- A six-card bust pays 50:1 and happens about 1 in 428 hands.
How the dealer actually busts
Eight decks, dealer stands on soft 17. These are the frequencies of the dealer busting with each number of cards.
| Dealer busts with | Pays | How often |
|---|---|---|
| 3 cards | 1:1 | 17.301% (1 in 6) |
| 4 cards | 2:1 | 8.716% (1 in 11) |
| 5 cards | 9:1 | 1.914% (1 in 52) |
| 6 cards | 50:1 | 0.234% (1 in 428) |
| 7 cards | 100:1 | 0.018% (1 in 5656) |
| 8 cards | 250:1 | 0.001% (1 in 116303) |
| 9 cards | 250:1 | 0.000% (1 in 3808229) |
| 10 cards | 250:1 | 0.000% (1 in 218493416) |
| 11 cards | 250:1 | 0.000% (1 in 26612753711) |
| 12 cards | 250:1 | 0.000% (1 in 11980593654454) |
House edge for this paytable: 6.18%, matching the published figure for the same table.
Why it is more tempting than most
Most side bets pay on something rare. Buster pays on something that happens more than a quarter of the time, so it wins often enough to feel like a fair fight.
The trick is in the distribution. 61% of all dealer busts are three-card busts, and those pay 1:1. The payouts that would actually change your evening are attached to outcomes that appear a few times a year.
Check the table, not the name
Buster exists in several versions. A common land-based one pays 2:1 for three or four cards and 4:1 for five, and lands near 6.2% for six decks. The Evolution live-dealer version priced above pays 1:1 for three cards but far more for the long ones.
Different shapes, similar cost. As always, the numbers printed on the layout are the only thing that decides.
Keep reading
By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.
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