The True Count, and How to Work It Out

Updated

The running count tells you how the shoe has drifted. The true count tells you how much that drift is worth right now — and it is the only one of the two you should ever bet from. It is the running count divided by the number of decks still to be dealt.

The short version
Every figure here is computed with our own solver and checked against an independent reference. The calculator applies the same numbers to your table.

Why dividing is necessary

A running count of +6 means six more low cards than high cards have gone. Spread across six remaining decks that is a rounding error. Concentrated into one remaining deck it is an enormous distortion.

Dividing turns a raw tally into a density, which is what actually determines your edge. Betting from the running count means betting the same amount on those two situations, and they are not remotely the same.

6 decks left true count +1 3 decks left true count +2 2 decks left true count +3 1 deck left true count +6
The same running count of +6, at four points in the shoe. Only the last one is worth a big bet.

Doing it at the table

1. Keep the running count as cards come out — the +1, 0, −1 tally.

2. Estimate the decks remaining. Look at the discard tray, not the shoe: it is easier to judge a growing stack than a shrinking one. A standard deck is about the thickness of a finger.

3. Divide. Running count 9, three decks left, true count +3.

Round to the nearest half deck at most. Precision beyond that is false — your deck estimate is the weakest link, not your arithmetic.

What each point is worth

Roughly half a percent per point of true count. At a true count of +1 the house edge is about gone; from +2 upward the game belongs to the player, and that is where a counter’s money is made.

It also drives the deviations in brief — the handful of basic-strategy cells that flip at particular counts. Insurance, for instance, becomes correct at +3.

The two mistakes people make

Dividing by decks dealt instead of decks remaining. It is remaining. The cards still to come are the ones you will be betting into.

Forgetting that it works downward too. A running count of −6 with one deck left is a true count of −6, and that shoe is as bad for you as +6 is good. That is when a counter sits out.

Keep reading

The running countthe number you divide The cut cardhow much shoe you get How to countthe whole method

By Martin Kosek · every number on this site is computed by us, not copied.

← Back to guides